World Cup Group D Preview
Group D is one of the most wide-open groups, with all four teams having a realistic chance of getting into the knockouts. Will the Hosts, USA, buckle under the immense outside noise? Can the Aussies replicate their run to the round of 16 from Qatar? South American teams are always dangerous, and Paraguay are no different, and Turkey are perhaps the favourites despite being the pot 4 team.
Group D fixtures (all kick-off times are in BST)
USA vs Paraguay 13th June 2am
Australia vs Turkey 14th June 5am
USA vs Australia 19th June 8pm
Turkey vs Paraguay 20th June 4am
Turkey vs USA 26th June 3am
Paraguay vs Australia 26th June 3am
USA
The US come into this World Cup in a weird state; when it was announced that this tournament would be held in North America, the expectation was that more US talent would have been developed than it has. Are the US bad? No, they're not; are they good? I don't think so; they should have enough to get out of this group, but that isnt a certainty. They're in a similar position to Mexico; they have made the round of 16 at 3 of the last 4 World Cups, only missing it when they inexplicably failed to qualify for 2018, but it's hard to see them going much further than that even with home support
The squad is by no means bad; they have some good players, particularly in forward areas with the likes of Christian Pulisic, Malik Tillman and Ricardo Pepi being solid European-level forwards, and even in midfield and full-back they're pretty strong with Tyler Adams and Weston McKennie likely to start in midfield and Serginio Dest and Antonee Robinson in the wing-back areas; they even have an elite manager in Mauricio Pochettino.
The problem the US faces is at centre back and in goal; they've had to change to a 5 at the back in the warm-up friendlies. While it has helped defensively in a tournament setting, you want as many good players on the pitch as possible; I feel the extra defender means an extra one of Pulisic, Pepi, Tillman, Timothy Weah, Brendan Aaronson and Gio Reyna are not going to be on the pitch, whereas 38-year-old Tim Ream and Miles Robinson are likely to both be on the pitch which is a problem as neither of these players are off the level of a team getting to the quarter finals or deeper.
Goalkeeping might be even more of a problem as Matt Turner is likely to be the starter, and anyone who had the displeasure of watching him at Nottingham Forest knows he is terrible. Gone are the days of Brad Friedel and Tim Howard making Goalie arguably the most sure position for the US.
The X factor for the US is Pulisic; while he is just another good winger in Europe, when he puts on the American shirt, does perform better, and he can drag them through games at times. If they're to go past the round of 32, they need Pulisic firing on all cylinders
This group is no gimme; there is a world where any team in this group gets 0 points and loses all three games. I don't think this is likely, but there is certainly a world where the US gets 1 or 2 points and exits their home World Cup in the group stage. As for their ceiling, it's probably the quarter-finals. I can't see them beating any of the European big boys or Argentina, Brazil, Ecuador and Japan, so the draw would have to fall kindly for this to happen.
Australia
Australia has become a World Cup staple at this point, having made every World Cup since 2006; they won 2 games in Qatar and got out of the groups and ran eventual champions Argentina very close in the round of 16 before falling 2-1, so in theory this is a team on the up, but the problem is the talent isnt there while they usually perform better than the sum of their parts.
Defensively, Australia should be fine with Alessandro Circati and Jordan Bos getting regular minutes in top 7 European leagues for Parma and Feyenoord, respectively. Mat Ryan is still the goalie, and with 104 caps he's been there, done that, and is unlikely to cost Australia in a game; throw in Harry Souttar who is a way better defender than he gets credit for in my opinion. If a ball goes in the Aussie box, Souttar will head it clear; there is a question at right back: one of Kai Trewin or Jacob Italiano will have to step up and perform better than they do at club level.
My fear for Australia is in midfield it's a group still led by Jackson Irvine, who is fine but having just been relegated from the Bundesliga with St Pauli, the other 5 guys in this group are yet to consistently prove themselves, although I do like Cammy Devlin who had a great season for Hearts this past season I think the injury to Riley McGree will hurt their ability to link the midfield to the attack in the presumed 5-2-3 formation.
Going forward, Mo Toure has dominated the Championship since signing for Norwich in January with 9 goals in 11 games, plus Nesotry Irankunda, who is a joy to watch when he is on it; he loves a goal from range, whether that is a free kick cutting in from the right onto his left foot and smacking it in the top corner. Australia are also buoyed by Christian Volpato finally deciding to play for Australia over Italy. The Sassuolo man should be their best player in the forward areas, creating for whoever is upfront, whether that is Toure, Awer Mabil or Tete Yengi.
The floor for this team is getting grouped with 0 or 1 point, and the ceiling is emulating their 2022 performance in making it to the round of 16, although this feels unlikely given the team doesn't feel much stronger than 4 years ago.
Paraguay
After 16 years away, Paraguay are back, having made four consecutive World Cups from 1998 to 2010, where they made the knockouts 3 times, including a quarter-final berth led by Roque Santa Cruz in 2010. This Paraguay team is your classic 6th team from South America; they're hard to beat and aren't enjoyable to watch or play against. The team is full of players who are littered all over the North and South American leagues, while very few have made their way over to Europe. This has led to lots of people discounting them, but the Brazilian and Argentine leagues are both strong, and any player playing for the better teams in those divisions is absolutely at the level to compete with the teams filled with players who play across Europe.
The best Paraguayan players are the 3 that play in a European top 5 league, though: Omar Alderete, Diego Gomez and Julio Enciso. Both Gomez and Enciso are attacking players, with Gomez being one of Brighton's best players in the second half of the season as they secured European football for next season; he can play anywhere from defensive midfield to the wing. He is great with the ball at his feet; he drives teams forward. Enciso is another winger, although he can also play up top; he is more a get-the-ball-given-to-him-high-and-wide player rather than coming deep to get it, making him a perfect yin to Gomez's yang. The problem is it's unclear how much Enciso will be able to play, as he was stretchered off in a friendly 6 days before the World Cup starts, and at the time of writing the severity of the injury hasn't been confirmed, but a replacement hasn't been called up yet, which is a positive sign he could feature at some point.
As for Alderete, he has been immense for Sunderland this season at the back as they somehow managed to qualify for the Europa League as a newly promoted side. He is a very aggressive defender who will look to step out and make tackles happen rather than sit off and wait for a mistake. He and Gustavo Gomez are a great pairing, and given the lack of elite talent going forward in this group outside of Turkey, they should be able to keep games close, hoping Gomez or Miguel Almiron can create something out of nothing going the other way.
The floor of this team is getting grouped, and the ceiling is the round of 16 like Australia and the USA, as between these three I don't think there is much to choose between them on who will get out of this group alongside Turkey.
Turkey
Despite Turkey being one of the most football-mad places on earth and having one of the richest leagues in the world, this is somehow only the third World Cup they have managed to qualify for, the first since they finished 3rd in 2002, and this Turkey team is better than that, and I think should walk this group the only thing that can stop them is the same problem England and Mexico suffer with the pressure and scrutiny put on the national team from the media and public is so severe that the team has been known to wilt under the pressure and under perform.
Turkey's biggest strength is going forward, with a quite frankly disgusting front four of Arda Guler, Kenan Yildiz, Can Uzun and Baris Alper Yilmaz is as good a front four as any team in the tournament that isnt France or Spain none of these guys are out and out strikers meaning all four might not play at the same time but if they do the inter play between them will be glorious and Turkey should be one of the best teams to watch in the whole tournament if everyone can stay fit as there is already some doubt about Yildiz's fitness for the early group games. The scary thing about this attack is that Guler Yildiz and Uzun are all 21 or younger, so still have at least 2 more World Cups in them.
Turkey aren't a paper tiger either; they are strong the whole way down the pitch with Hakan Calhanoglu and Orkun Kokcu in midfield, and Ferdi Kadioglu, Zeki Celik and Merih Demiral making up three of the four defenders and whichever centre back they put next, Demiral will also have elite European experience under their belt. The only slight question mark is in goal as all three goalkeepers selected are decent without being standout, but given how good the rest of the presumed starting eleven is, they won't have to do much in this group.
I find it very difficult to see Turkey getting less than 6 points in this group and therefore advancing out of the group at a minimum, and they're a team that I think, if all the cards fall right, do have an outside chance of winning the whole thing.
Predictions
In my predictions, Australia fail to progress as one of the 8 best third-place teams, so are knocked out in the groups.
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