Germany’s Potential Sweep and Oval Showdowns: Day 11 at the Winter Games
Germany’s Podium Pursuit and Oval Showdowns: Day 11 at the Winter Games
The eleventh day of the Games focuses on high-stakes execution across seven gold medal events. While the 2-man bobsleigh reaches its final heats in Cortina, the spotlight shifts to the endurance of the men’s biathlon relay and the elimination format of the speed skating team pursuit. From the icy technical turns in the bobsleigh track to the precision required on the biathlon range at Antholz, today’s schedule tests whether the established favourites can hold their narrow leads under final-round pressure.
Snowboarding
Women’s Slopestyle Final
The women’s slopestyle final at the Livigno Snow Park is set to be a clash of generations and styles. After a challenging qualifying session that saw Great Britain’s Mia Brookes and America’s Julia Marino fail to advance, the door has swung wide open for the medals:
Zoi Sadowski-Synnott (NZL): The defending Olympic champion proved her status as the gold standard by topping the qualification rounds with a massive score of 88.08. She is the most physically dominant rider in the field, possessing the rare ability to generate speed on the flat rail sections where others struggle. After taking silver in the Big Air earlier this week, her competitive fire is at an all-time high. Her signature backside double cork 1080 is the most polished trick in the field, and if she stomps it on her first run, the psychological pressure on the rest of the pack will be immense.
Kokomo Murase (JPN): Fresh off her gold medal performance in the Big Air, Murase is currently the most technical rider on the world tour. She qualified second and looks exceptionally comfortable on the Livigno rails, where her compact style and creative grabs are earning high execution marks from the judges. As the current World Cup points leader, she has the consistency to put down three high-scoring runs. Her tactical advantage lies in her "switch" repertoire; she can land in either direction with such precision that it’s often difficult for the untrained eye to tell which way is her natural lead.
Yu Seungeun (KOR): The 17-year-old South Korean is the breakout star of these Games and qualified in third place, signalling that her Big Air bronze was no fluke. She brings a fresh, new school aesthetic to the slopestyle course, prioritising unique rail lines and long-held, tweaked grabs over raw rotation speed. While she lacks the triple-cork history of the top two, her ability to land perfectly in the sweet spot of the transition makes her a judging favourite. She is riding with the freedom of an underdog who has already exceeded expectations, which makes her dangerous in a high-pressure final.
Anna Gasser (AUT): The two-time Olympic Big Air champion is entering the final chapter of her legendary career and looks determined to add a slopestyle medal to her trophy cabinet. She qualified fifth, skiing conservatively to ensure she didn't risk an injury on the ice. Gasser’s experience is her greatest weapon; she has seen every possible wind condition and course setting, and her ability to adapt her run mid-course is unmatched. She remains the most popular rider in the field, and a podium finish here would be the perfect swan song for a woman who has defined women’s snowboarding for over a decade.
Reira Iwabuchi (JPN): Often overshadowed by her teammate Murase, Iwabuchi is a technical powerhouse who qualified fourth with a very strong showing on the kickers. She is known for her high-frequency rotations and has been dialling in a frontside double cork 1260 in practice that could potentially upset the podium hierarchy. Her strength lies in her air awareness; even when a gust of wind catches her mid-flight, she has a cat-like ability to adjust her board for a clean landing. If she can clean up her entries into the rail section, she is a lock for the top five and a serious medal threat.
Prediction:
Gold: Zoi Sadowski-Synnott
Silver: Murase Kokomo
Bronze: Yu Seungeun
Nordic Combined:
Nordic Combined: Individual Large Hill/10km Final
The field in Predazzo is navigating a transition following the retirement of Jarl Magnus Riiber last season. This has created a power vacuum that a dominant Austrian squad and a revitalised Norwegian team are eager to fill. The conditions are expected to be physically taxing, with rising temperatures making the snow slow and heavy, perfect for the engines of the sport who can sustain high tempo over the final two laps.
Johannes Lamparter (AUT): The reigning World Cup overall leader is the man everyone is watching. Lamparter took a narrow silver in the Normal Hill event earlier this week, losing out only in the final 500-meter sprint. However, the Large Hill is his preferred playground; he has already won two World Cup events on this hill profile during the 2025-2026 season. His flight technique is the most efficient in the world, allowing him to carry a high gate speed into a deep landing. If he can start the 10km race with a lead of thirty seconds or more, his tactical intelligence makes him nearly impossible to reel in.
Jens Lurås Oftebrø (NOR): After his heroic sprint to win the Normal Hill gold, Oftebrø is attempting to become the first man since 2018 to sweep the individual Olympic titles. He is widely considered the best cross-country skier in the combined field, possessing a second gear that can erase a forty-second deficit in a single 2.5km lap. While his jumping is slightly less consistent than Lamparter’s, his confidence is at an all-time high after his victory on Wednesday. He will likely look to form a working group with other trailing skiers to draft and conserve energy before unleashing his trademark uphill surge.
Stefan Rettenegger (AUT): Representing the younger half of the Rettenegger brothers dynasty, Stefan has emerged as a consistent podium threat throughout the 2026 cycle. He finished a painful fourth in the Normal Hill and is coming into the Large Hill final with a point to prove. He is a specialist of the "flight phase," often earning the highest style marks for his stable, aerodynamic posture. Because he is younger and lighter than many of his rivals, the steep climbs of the Predazzo track suit his high-cadence skiing style. He is the most likely candidate to lead the field out of the starting blocks after the jumping portion.
Julian Schmid (GER): With the German team in a rebuilding phase, Schmid has stepped up as their primary hope for hardware. He currently sits third in the World Cup standings and is known for his relentless consistency. Schmid does not have the explosive peak of Oftebrø or the pure flight of Lamparter, but he has no visible weakness. He is a rhythm skier who thrives when the pace is high from the start. If the lead group becomes a tactical cat-and-mouse game, Schmid’s ability to maintain a steady, gruelling tempo can break the legs of those who rely too heavily on their sprint finish.
Eero Hirvonen (FIN): The veteran Finn is enjoying a career renaissance at thirty years old. After securing a surprise bronze in the Normal Hill, Hirvonen is skiing with a level of aggression that has shocked the favourites. He often stays buried in the pack until the final two kilometres, where he outsprints the other athletes. Given his current form, he is no longer a wildcard but a legitimate contender to spoil the Austrian-Norwegian duel at the top of the table.
Prediction:
Gold: Lamparter
Silver: Rettenegger
Bronze: Oftebro
Biathlon
Men's 4x7.5km relay
The men's relay promises to be a great race with four athletes each doing three laps of 2.5km plus one shoot prone and one stand the penalty for a miss is much less severe than in individual events, as there are three spare rounds per shoot available each taking about seven seconds to load and fire much less than the 25 second time loss on the penalty loop
Norway: Martin Uldal, Johan Olav Botn, Sturla Holm Laegreid and Vetle Sjaastad Christiansen will look to defend Norway's gold medal from four years ago, but without the now-retired Boe brothers, this is a harder feat than four years ago. They don't have the ski speed of some team particularly the French, but are probably the best shooting team on paper, and particularly Laegreid and Christiansen have done many relays with pressure on and know what they're doing on the pressure shoots would be a surprise if they don't medal.
France: Fabien Claude, Emilien Jacquelin, Quentin Fillon-Maillet and Eric Perrot are the fastest team on paper and on their best form, with three of their quartet having individual medals from these games but its interesting they have selected Jacquelin who is an amazing athlete but is prone to having a terrible shoot which could see them on the penalty loop if they shoot well they will win because of their collective ski speed.
Sweden: The key for Sweden is getting through the first two legs in contention if Victor Brandt and Jesper Nelin can keep the leaders in touch at halfway, then Sweden has arguably the strongest final two in the world with Pursuit gold medalist Martin Ponsiluoma and world number three Sebastian Samuelsson. The key for Sweden will be key if they avoid the penalty loop and only need under eight spare rounds, they will be right in the mix for Gold.
Italy: The last of the teams that on a perfect day could win gold if they can get to the World number two Tommasso Giacomel, in contention, there is no better biathlete in the world at closing a head-to-head race out. Giacomel is rapid on the skis and tends to hit the targets when it matters. The job of keeping them in touch likely lies with Lukas Hofer on leg two, who is a great biathlete in his own right, but when in a relay, tends to find a new level of performance. Expect Italy to potentially have the fastest second and fourth legs, but with Patrick Braunhofer and Nicola Romanin on legs one and three, they may well find themselves too far back for Giacomel to challenge
Germany: Germany has four good biathletes without any being world-class, like the four teams above them for them to contend. They need to shoot fast and clean to keep them in the hunt before their two faster skier in, Phillip Nawrath and Phillip Horn, aim to close out the relay in a medal position. Leg two figures to be their problem, with David Zobel against the likes of Botn and Jacquelin figures to be a mismatch.
USA: The best chance the Americans will have to complete the set of medals in the winter Olympic sports they're ranked fifth in the men's relay and have a star in Campbell Wright who on his day can mix it with the worlds best on the final the leg they're unlikely to fight for the win but if they can deliver Wright a gap of less than 30 seconds of the podium on the final leg the Americans can dare to dream.
Finland: The darkhorse podium contender, despite being down the rankings in the relay in 11th, their men are performing brilliantly at these Olympics, with all four qualified for the mass start on Friday on paper if they can transfer the individual performances into the relay they will be right in the mix for a top five and maybe even a medal something a Finnish relay has never done at the Olympics.
Prediction:
Gold: France
Silver: Norway
Bronze: Sweden
Speed skating
In speed skating team pursuit, two teams of three skaters start on opposite sides of the oval. The men race for 3200m (eight laps) and the women for 2400m (six laps). The goal is to finish with all three skaters across the line as quickly as possible, as the team's time is recorded when the third skater finishes. Following the quarterfinals, the four fastest teams advance to the semifinals, where they compete in a head-to-head elimination format.
Men’s Team Pursuit Semifinals
Italy: Italy entered the semifinals with the fastest time of the weekend, clocking 3:38.40. The trio of Davide Ghiotto, Andrea Giovannini, and Michele Malfatti used their experience as the 2024 world champions to hold off the United States in their head-to-head heat. Ghiotto’s endurance as a long-distance specialist provides the anchor for the team, and they are leveraging home-ice advantage to maintain high speeds through the final two laps.
United States The American team of Casey Dawson, Emery Lehman, and Ethan Cepuran qualified second with a time of 3:39.37. They are the world record holders and 2025 world champions, known for a specific push technique where the trailing skaters physically assist the leader to maintain momentum. Despite finishing slightly behind Italy in the opening round, they are still the slight favourites due to their consistency over the last five seasons.
China: China made history by reaching the semifinals for the first time since the event’s debut in 2006. The trio of Liu Hanbin, Wu Yu, and Li Wenhao delivered a high-cadence performance to secure the fourth and final qualifying spot. Their strategy focuses on an aggressive start to establish a rhythm early, and while they are the underdogs in this field, their technical improvement over the last year has made them a legitimate threat to the podium.
Netherlands: The Dutch team of Marcel Bosker, Chris Huizinga, and Jorrit Bergsma claimed the fourth and final spot in the semifinals. After a period of rebuilding, the Netherlands utilised a technical rotation strategy to finish ahead of the remaining field in the time rankings. They face a difficult semifinal against the top-seeded Italians, requiring them to significantly lower their quarterfinal mark to advance to the final.
Prediction:
Gold: Italy
Silver: USA
Bronze: Netherlands
Women’s Team Pursuit
Canada: Canada leads the field after qualifying first with a time of 2:55.03. The defending Olympic champions, Ivanie Blondin, Valérie Maltais, and Isabelle Weidemann, remain the team to beat. Their strength lies in their individual endurance and their ability to stay tightly synchronised during transitions. They held a steady lead throughout their qualifying heat and are the only team in the field currently skating under the 2:55 mark in Milano.
Japan: Japan qualified second with a time of 2:55.52, led by veteran Miho Takagi. The Japanese team is known for having the lowest, most aerodynamic profile in the sport, which helps them carry significant speed through the corners. Although Takagi expressed some frustration with their final lap deceleration in the quarters, their opening four laps were the fastest of the day, suggesting they have the highest top-end speed in the bracket.
Netherlands: The Dutch team of Joy Beune, Marijke Groenewoud, and Antoinette Rijpma-de Jong qualified third in 2:55.65. They are a team of individual powerhouses who rely on raw wattage and deep rotations to keep the pace high. While they had some minor spacing issues in the final corners of their first race, their individual pedigree in the 1500m and 3000m makes them highly dangerous in a head-to-head elimination format.
United States The American women, Brittany Bowe, Mia Manganello, and Giorgia Birkeland, secured the fourth spot with a time of 2:58.32. This team relies heavily on the leadership of Bowe and Manganello, who have been skating together for nearly a decade. While their qualifying time was three seconds back from Canada, their technical synchronicity is their greatest weapon, and they often perform better in the pressure-filled environment of a direct head-to-head race.
Prediction:
Gold: Canada
Silver: Netherlands
Bronze: Japan
Freestyle skiing
Men’s Freeski Big Air involves athletes skiing down a steep ramp to hit a single massive jump, launching them into the air to perform complex aerial manoeuvres. Competitors are judged on the difficulty, execution, amplitude, and landing of their trick. In the final, each skier takes three runs, and their two best scores from different trick categories (meaning they must spin in different directions or on different axes) are combined for a total score.
Mac Forehand (USA): Forehand enters the final as the top qualifier after posting a score of 183.00, the highest of the competition so far. He has distinguished himself by incorporating double grabs into his triple cork rotations, a technical nuance that significantly increases his difficulty score. His ability to hold these grabs until the very last moment before landing demonstrates a level of air awareness that separates him from the pack. If he replicates his qualifying performance, where he landed both a forward and switch 1800, he is the statistical favourite for gold.
Matej Svancer (AUT): Svancer qualified in second place and is widely regarded as the most creative skier in the field. He differentiates himself with his unique takeoff techniques, often using nose-butters—leaning forward on the tips of his skis before launching—to initiate his spins. This unconventional style scores highly for creativity and difficulty. He has been landing quadruple corks in practice, and while he did not need that level of risk to advance through qualifying, he will likely attempt it in the final to challenge for the top step of the podium.
Birk Ruud (NOR): The defending Olympic champion qualified comfortably in third position. Ruud is known for his technical perfection rather than sheer rotation speed, often prioritising clean axis control and distinct grabs over adding an extra half-rotation. His landings in qualifying were the cleanest in the field, earning him high execution points. Ruud’s strategy typically involves putting down two high-scoring safety runs to secure a medal before risking a maximum-difficulty trick on his third attempt.
Tormod Frostad (NOR): Frostad qualified fourth and brings a high-velocity style to the competition. He spins faster than almost any other competitor, which allows him to complete his rotations high above the landing zone. This gives him ample time to spot his landing, reducing the risk of a hand-drag or crash. While he sometimes lacks the unique grab variety of Svancer or Forehand, his consistency in landing heavy rotational tricks makes him a threat for the podium if the top three falter.
Luca Harrington (NZL): Harrington rounded out the top five in qualifying, showcasing his expertise in switch (backward) takeoffs. He has mastered the switch triple cork 1440, a trick that scores well due to the blind entry and high degree of difficulty. He performs particularly well on the firm snow conditions found in Livigno, which allow for a precise edge set on takeoff. Harrington is expected to increase his rotation to 1800 degrees for the final, a necessary step up if he intends to bridge the gap to the leaders.
Prediction:
Gold: Ruud
Silver: Forehand
Bronze: Frostad
Bobsleigh
Johannes Lochner and Georg Fleischhauer (GER): Lochner and Fleischhauer dominated the first day, finishing with a cumulative time of 1:49.90.
Francesco Friedrich and Alexander Schüller (GER): The defending champions sit in second place at 1:50.70. While Friedrich and Schüller have remained competitive at the start, they have consistently lost time to Lochner in the lower half of the track. Friedrich is the only other pilot within a second of the lead, but he will need to find a more aggressive line in the final runs to have any chance of defending his gold medal.
Adam Ammour and Alexander Schaller (GER): Ammour and Schaller hold the third position at 1:51.14.
Frank Del Duca and Joshua Williamson (USA): The American duo is currently fourth with a time of 1:51.24.
Mihai Cristian Tentea and George Iordache (ROU): The Romanians are the biggest surprise of the top five, moving up from 10th after the first heat to 5th at the halfway mark.
Gold: Locher and Fleischhauer
Silver: Friedrich and Schuller
Bronze: Ammour and Schaller
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