Giro D'Italia Preview

It's time for the First Grand Tour of the cycling season, the spring classics are over, and the three-week tours can begin, the first stop being in Italy with the Giro d'Italia starting on the 8th May, starting in Bulgaria for the first three stages before the peloton moves over to Italy for stage 4 till the final stage in Rome on the 31st of May. This year's Giro is 3,459 kilometres, the longest since 2016, but it has noticeably fewer elevation gains than previous editions, with 49,150m of climbing compared to 52,500m last year, in a noticeable shift to try and attract the cycling world's biggest stars to attempt the Giro - Tour double in a single season. This has kind of worked with some stars deciding the Giro is the one to do this year, like Jonas Vingegaard, but late withdrawals due to illness or injury have led to the general classification being less interesting on paper than it would have been if guys like Joao Almeida, Richard Carapaz, and Mikel Landa weren't forced to withdraw. With that being said, the Giro always provides drama, so it will no doubt be an intriguing three weeks.

General Classification Favourites

Jonas Vingegaard (Team Visma Lease a Bike): The overwhelming favourite for this edition of the Giro, Vingegaard is a two-time Tour de France champion (2022, 2023), plus he added the Vuelta a España last year, meaning he is trying to be just the eighth man to win all three grand tours over his career. He is the only man who has managed to stay close to the all-conquering Tadej Pogacar at the last two Tour de Frances and is the second-best grand tour rider of this generation. His team is anything but weak, with Campenaerts, Kelderman and former grand tour winner Sepp Kuss in his team, helping him clinch the career tour slam. If he doesn't crash, he should win, and he will try to get an unassailable lead before the final week so he can take it easier to conserve energy for his rematch with Pogacar at the Tour in July.

Giulio Pellizzari (Red Bull Bora-Hansgrohe): The young Italian is the host nation's best shot to win this year's Giro, aiming to be the first Italian to win since Vincenzo Nibali in 2016. He is coming off a fairly dominant showing at the Tour of the Alps, winning by 40 seconds in his first season as a team leader for Red Bull Bora-Hansgrohe and is the overwhelming favourite to win the young riders classification. He has a great supporting cast with Mick Van Dijke marshalling him through the flat stages and former Giro winner Jai Hindley and Aleksandr Vlasov leading him up the mountains. While he will likely need Vingegaard to encounter issues to win a maiden grand tour podium is the minimum expectation from the tifosi on the roadside.

Felix Gall (Decathlon CMA CGM Team): Gall is a 3 time top ten finisher at grand tours, but his form this year has improved on that, especially when the road goes uphill. He was second to Vingegaard on the queen stage in Catalunya and finished 5th in the UAE Tour earlier this year. The easier-than-normal Giro doesn't work to his advantage as it makes the 40km of time trials all the more important, which has historically been his weak point in the three-week races. His team is definitely weaker than the two above him, as his team has brought a designated sprinter in Tobias Lund Andresen, meaning fewer team resources are used on him compared to Vingegaard and Pellizzari. He will need his best legs on the heavy mountain stages if he is to secure his first grand tour podium, but the weakened start list means he definitely has a chance.

Adam Yates (UAE Team Emirates): Aiming to emulate his twin brother Simon's victory last year, he originally was coming to the Giro as lead domestique for Almeida, but with him having to withdraw, he is the presumed leader for a very strong UAE team with elite riders like Jay Vine, Jhonatan Narvaez and Marc Soler aiming to add another grand tour podium to Yates' palmares because he wasnt the planned team leader it will be interesting to see what his legs are like at the top of the really big climbs as he wasnt expected to still be needed at those points in the race but Yates has been there and done that over the last decade so he will almost certainly never be out of position at any point in the race

Thymen Arensman and Egan Bernal (Netcompany INEOS): It's hard to tell which of these two will end up as INEOS' leader, as it will likely be a case of who is in a better GC position at halfway and then decide when both are at their absolute best, Bernal should be the leader as he has won the Tour de France and the Giro in the early 2020's before a horrific crash in early 2022 which resulted in injuries so severe doctors gave him a 95% chance of becoming a paraplegic or dying so the fact he is still racing at all is a miracle in itself but he has never recovered fully from these injuries but if he is back to his best a fully fit Bernal is the biggest threat to Vingegaard in the whole race. As for Arensman, he has been a consistent rider for half a decade at this point, with three 6th places his best grand tour finishes, but he looks to be in the form of his life with two podiums this season at the Tour of the Alps and Tirreno Adriatico, plus a further fifth place finish in the Algarve the podium will be the goal with at least one of these riders for INEOS.

Other podium contenders:
Derek Gee-West and Giulio Ciccone (Lidl-Trek)
Santiago Buitrago and Damiano Caruso (Bahrain-Victorius)
Enric Mas (Movistar)
Ben O'Connor (Jayco AlUla)
Michael Storer (Tudor Pro Cycling)

Sprinters

Jonathan Milan (Lidl-Trek): The Massive Italian returns to his home Grand Tour as the favourite for the maglia ciclamino and the opening stage win in Bulgaria. After a dominant 2025 where he secured the Tour de France green jersey, Milan has started 2026 in terrifying form, racking up six victories, including a triple at the UAE Tour and a stage at Tirreno-Adriatico. He possesses arguably the most powerful lead-out train in the race, featuring Simone Consonni, Maximilian Walscheid, and Tim Torn Teutenberg. His combination of raw watts and the ability to survive punchy hills makes him almost impossible to beat if the finish is straight and power-based.

Dylan Groenewegen (Unibet Rose Rockets): After a high-profile move to the debutant Unibet Rose Rockets, Groenewegen is enjoying a career renaissance under the guidance of sprint coach Marcel Kittel. With four wins already this season, including the team's historic first WorldTour victory at the Ronde Van Brugge, the Dutchman is Milan’s primary rival for flat finishes. While he lacks the versatility of some younger rivals on hillier terrain, his pure top-end speed remains elite. He enters the Giro with a flawless build-up and a massive target on the Stage 1 pink jersey.

Kaden Groves (Alpecin-Premier Tech): The most decorated sprinter in the field in terms of sheer Grand Tour volume, Groves is a two-time Vuelta points jersey winner with 10 stage wins across the three big tours. While his 2026 spring was hampered by a knee injury suffered at Omloop Het Nieuwsblad, his team confirms he is fully recovered after an altitude training block. Groves thrives in scrappy or technical finishes where positioning is key, and he has a proven track record in Italy with wins in Salerno and Naples. Without superstar teammates like Jasper Philipsen present, he has the full backing of Alpecin’s brilliant lead-outs to chase multiple stage victories.

While these three are the favourites for the sprints, guys like Arnaud De Lie, Paul Magnier and Pascal Ackermann are sure to feature in the sprints.

Other Riders to watch out for 

Filippo Ganna (Netcompany INEOS): The powerful Italian is perhaps the most diverse rider in the race as he is the heavy favourite to win the time trial on stage 10, but will also likely contend in sprints and will be in breakaways in the mountains and ride on the front of the peloton. He can truly ride on any terrain, expect at least one stage win, but he could very conceivably win a couple more out of breaks if the opportunity arises.

Andreas Leknessund (Uno-X Mobility): Leknessund could ride for a top 10 on GC, but I think he is more likely to go stage hunting out of breakaways in the high mountains, and he has the pedigree, having won from a breakaway previously at the Giro, to wear the pink jersey. He will almost certainly go deep in a breakaway at least once in the mountains.

Davide Ballerini (XDS Astana): Ballerini is an enigma; you never really know when and where he will turn up and be in his best form. He will enter breaks on the rolling stages that are too hard for sprinters but not hard enough for a GC battle to commence, and if he is up the road in a break that is likely to remain away from the peloton and win the stage, he is electric to watch. When on form, he will attack and attack till his legs give out on him, or he drops everyone and rides solo to victory. The Giro will be worse if Ballerini isnt involved in the battle for the win on at least one stage.

Predictions

Maglia Rosa (Pink): Jonas Vingegaard

Maglia Bianca  (White): Giulio Pellizzari

Maglia Ciclamino (Points): Kaden Groves

Maglia Azurra (Mountains): Jonas Vingegaard. Thanks for reading my thoughts on the 2026 Giro before a wheel has turned. Any questions, feel free to leave a comment.

Daniel Mott