Speed, Technique, Precision, Nine Golds up for grabs One. Day. Four.
Speed, Technique, Precision, Nine Golds up for grabs. One. Day. Four.
Welcome to the most explosive day of the Milano-Cortina 2026 Winter Olympics so far. With nine gold medals set to be awarded across six different disciplines, Day Four is a sprawling marathon of speed, precision, and nerves. From the high-flying acrobatics at the Livigno Snow Park to the razor-thin margins on the icy curves of Cortina and the tactical chess matches at the Predazzo Ski Jumping Stadium, the medal table is about to be completely rewritten. Traditional powerhouses like Norway and Germany look to assert their dominance in cross-country and luge, while host nation Italy finds itself within striking distance of the podium in nearly every event, buoyed by a home crowd that has turned the Italian Alps into a cauldron of noise.
Freestyle skiing
The Men's Freeski Slopestyle Final features a field of 12 individual athletes competing at the Livigno Snow Park. While nations send teams of skiers to the Games, the final itself is every man for himself, following a high-stakes best-of-three format where only the highest score from three runs counts toward the final ranking. The course consists of six total features, three creative rail sections at the top, followed by three massive jumps at the bottom, where judges look for progression, technical difficulty, and style.
Norway and the USA have dominated the lead-up to this final, each securing three spots in the top 12.
Birk Ruud (NOR) The two-time reigning World Champion entered the final as the absolute man to beat after topping the qualification round with an 81.75. Because he qualified in first place, he earns the strategic advantage of dropping last in the final, allowing him to know exactly what score he needs to beat on his final run.
Tormod Frostad (NOR) The second-highest qualifier, who surprised many by nearly matching Ruud’s technicality. He and Sebastian Schjerve round out a Norwegian triple threat that has the potential to sweep the podium if they land their high-rotation jump tricks.
Jesper Tjäder (SWE) The 2022 bronze medalist and crowd favorite known for the most creative rail lines in the business. After a shaky first qualifying run, he surged into 3rd place and remains the biggest threat to disrupt the Norwegian/American dominance with his unique, creative scores.
Matěj Švancer (AUT) is a technical wizard who has been pushing the limits of what is possible on the rail sections. He qualified 4th and is well in the mix for a medal.
Andri Ragettli (SUI): The most consistent veteran in the field and a former world champion. He and teammate Kim Gubser carry the hopes for Switzerland; Ragettli is known for a perfectionist style that rarely sees a missed landing.
Alex Hall (USA): The defending Olympic gold medalist. While he qualified in 8th, Hall is famous for sandbagging during qualifiers and unleashing massive, creative tricks in the final that no one else in the world can replicate. He is joined by teammates Mac Forehand and Konnor Ralph, making the U.S. the strongest depth-wise.
Luca Harrington (NZL) The recent X Games champion, qualified alongside teammate Ben Barclay. Harrington has the raw power on the kickers to bridge the gap to the top five if he can clean up his rail transitions from the qualifying round.
Prediction:
Gold: Ruud
Silver: Hall
Bronze: Frostad
Short-track speed skating
The most chaotic event on the short track program consists of 18 laps, where teams of two men and two women must navigate a flurry of exchanges and high-speed cornering. Unlike the longer relays, the Mixed Relay is a pure sprint, meaning there is no time to recover from a mistimed push or a slip. The order, Women-Women-Men-Men, twice creates unique tactical battles where female sprinters often have to hold off larger male skaters during the transition phases.
South Korea:
The historical powerhouses of the sport are looking for a complete reset after a disastrous quarter-final exit in Beijing. They have leaned into a "Twin Ace" strategy with Choi Min-jeong and Kim Gil-li, arguably the most technically sound female duo in the field. They are paired with the explosive newcomer Rim Jong-un, who has been the revelation of the World Tour season, and veteran Hwang Dae-heon. They are the favourites to win if the race becomes tactical, as their ability to find gaps in traffic is unmatched.
Netherlands:
Currently the betting favourites and the fastest pure skating team in the world. They rely on the sheer twitch speed of Xandra Velzeboer, the 500m world record holder, to build early leads. With Jens van 't Wout anchoring the men's side, the Dutch strategy is usually to burn the other teams from the front. They are less comfortable in a pack, so expect them to try to string the race out from the first exchange.
Canada:
The physically strongest team on the ice, led by William Dandjinou, who has been nearly unbeatable over the last two seasons. Canada excels at the push the physical exchange between skaterswhere they often generate more exit velocity than the Asian teams. Courtney Sarault and Steven Dubois provide the veteran stability needed to avoid the disqualifications that have plagued Canada in previous Olympic relays.
China:
The defending Olympic champions and the masters of this specific format. They have a lineup designed specifically for the 2000m distance, featuring Lin Xiaojun, who is widely considered the most dangerous relay skater for his ability to pass on the final corner. They might be slightly slower in raw lap times than the Dutch, but they are the most disciplined team when it comes to exchange positioning.
Other teams who could feature:
Italy: led by the legendary Arianna Fontana at her sixth Olympics, due to the chaos of the event and the crowd advantage, they could medal.
USA: Have two of the fastest women in the world in Kristen Santos-Griswold and Corinne Stoddard, but their men figure to be too weak to seriously contend for a medal.
Prediction:
Gold: South Korea
Silver: China
Bronze: Canada
Cross-country skiing
Italy: led by the legendary Arianna Fontana at her sixth Olympics, due to the chaos of the event and the crowd advantage, they could medal.
USA: Have two of the fastest women in the world in Kristen Santos-Griswold and Corinne Stoddard, but their men figure to be too weak to seriously contend for a medal.
Gold: South Korea
Silver: China
Bronze: Canada
The Sprint Classic is the most explosive event in cross-country skiing, combining raw sprinting power with high-stakes tactical manoeuvring. It begins with a Qualifying Round, where athletes start individually at 15-second intervals to set a time over a short loop.
Only the top 30 athletes advance to the Knockout Stages. From the Quarter-finals onwards, it is a head-to-head battle. Six skiers line up in each heat, and only the top two finishers (plus the two fastest lucky losers across all heats) move on to the Semi-finals and the Final. In the Classic style, skiers must stay in pre-set parallel tracks. Stepping out to skate results in immediate disqualification, making technique under pressure the deciding factor.
Men's event:
Johannes Høsflot Klæbo (NOR): The undisputed king of the sport, having not lost a sprint classic event when he wasn't coming back from illness since March 2022, he is the heavy favourite and is expected to win gold number two in his unprecedented quest for six out of six at these Olympics. Klæbo revolutionised the classic technique with his signature Klæbo Run, a high-frequency running motion on his toes that allows him to sprint up steep hills while others are stuck in a traditional rhythmic glide. He is a psychological master who often sits at the back of a pack to save energy before using the slingshot effect to blast past leaders on the final corner. If he is anywhere near the front in the final 100 meters, his double-pole finishing speed is virtually unbeatable.
Erik Valnes (NOR): the Specialist and the primary threat to Klæbo. Valnes is a classic purist who possesses more raw kick and power in his stride than anyone else. He doesn't rely on tactics as he often tries to turn the sprint into a high-speed grind from the start to drain the explosive energy of his rivals. If the snow is heavy and the climbs are gruelling, Valnes has the best chance of dethroning Klæbo.
Lauri Vuorinen (FIN): The top challenger from outside Norway. Vuorinen has been the most consistent classic sprinter this season and is a master of the finish-line lunge. The Finnish team is famous for its meticulous classic ski preparation, and Vuorinen is currently in the best physical form of his career. He is a savvy tactician who knows how to find gaps in a crowded field during the final sprint.
Federico Pellegrino (ITA): The local hero and defending silver medalist, carrying the hopes of the home crowd in Italy. While the skating technique is his favoured technique, his veteran experience makes him incredibly dangerous in the heats. He is perhaps the smartest racer on the circuit, knowing exactly when to draft and when to strike. With the Italian fans behind him, he will be looking to use his tactical brilliance to poach a medal in the final straight.
Ben Ogden (USA): The Wildcard and the most aggressive skier in the field. Ogden is known for going very early, often straight from the gun, which forces the favourites to chase him at a frantic pace. He uses a high-tempo, chaotic-looking style that is surprisingly effective on short, punchy climbs. He represents the best chance for a non-European medal in this event in decades.
Other contenders:
Even Northug (NOR)
The younger brother of the legendary Petter Northug, is a pure sprint specialist who possesses a massive turbo gear for the final 50 meters if he can stay tucked in the draft.
Calle Halfvarsson (SWE)
The veteran of the Swedish team is in the midst of a late-career resurgence and has the tactical experience to navigate chaotic heats better than almost anyone in the field.
Ansgar Evensen (NOR)
A fearless wildcard who earned his Olympic spot by winning a World Cup classic sprint earlier this year, he is known for being extremely aggressive in tight corners.
Jules Chappaz (FRA)
The bronze medalist from the most recent World Championships, he is a big-occasion racer and the last man to beat a fully fit Klaebo in a classic sprint event, with the physical strength to hold his own in a high-speed double-pole finish.
Pål Golberg (NOR)
A world-class classic specialist who will be the primary threat to the podium if the course conditions are heavy and the race becomes a gruelling test of endurance.
Prediction:
Gold: Klæbo
Silver: Valnes
Bronze: Pellegrino
Women's event:
Linn Svahn (SWE): The gold medal favourite and current World Cup sprint leader. Svahn is a tactical street fighter on skis, famous for taking the tightest lines in corners and forcing her way into gaps that don't really exist, that allowe her to dictate her races. After missing the 2022 Games due to injury, she has returned with an improved classic technique that allows her to switch from a powerful glide to a rapid-fire uphill sprint in an instant.
Kristine Stavås Skistad (NOR): The primary threat to a Swedish podium sweep. Skistad is the most powerful sprinter in the field and utilises a high-risk sit-and-kick strategy. She often lingers at the back of the pack during the climbs to save energy before using her massive physical frame to slingshot past the entire field on the final 200-meter straight.
Jonna Sundling (SWE): The defending Olympic champion. Sundling is a pure powerhouse who prefers to lead from the front, setting a blistering pace from the starting gun to burn off the finishers before the final stretch. She is a big-event performer who peaks her body for championships, and if she gets even a small gap over the final hill, she is nearly impossible to reel in.
Emma Ribom (SWE) The classic technique specialist. While her teammates are versatile, Ribom is at her absolute best in the tracks, possessing the most efficient kick in the world. She doesn't have the raw top speed of Skistad, so her path to gold is to make the race so gruelling from the start that the pure speedsters lose their legs by the final bridge.
Other contenders:
Rosie Brennan (USA): The veteran American is the top non-Scandinavian threat, specialising in high-altitude, high-tempo classic racing.
Maja Dahlqvist (SWE): A tactical genius and multi-time Crystal Globe winner who excels at drafting behind her teammates until the final 50 meters to snatch a podium spot.
Tiril Udnes Weng (NOR): A consistent all-rounder who uses her endurance to stay fresh through the gruelling quarter and semi-finals while others begin to fade.
Nadine Fähndrich (SUI):
A lightning-fast starter who often wins the qualifying round and uses her explosive initial burst to control the lanes in the knockout heats.
Prediction:
Gold: Svahn
Silver: Ribom
Bronze: Sundling
Biathlon
Men's 20km Individual:
The longest and most gruelling event in the Biathlon, with 5 laps of 4km with four shoots, with the order being: prone, stand, prone, stand, different to every other four-shot Biathlon race. The penalty for a miss is one minute added to an athlete's aggregate time rather than a penalty loop, pretty much doubling the time penalty of a miss compared to a pursuit or mass start, meaning hitting targets is more important in this event than any other Biathlon race, giving the sharpshooters a bigger advantage over the faster skiers.
Tommasso Giacomel (ITA): Probably the only athlete in the field who can miss two and still win in this event, as his ski power and willingness to punish himself after he misses are unmatched currently, and having got the medal expectation off his chest with the Silver in the mixed relay, he should be free to just go for it. Given his quick shooting and ski speed advantage, if he hits all the target he will almost certainly win.
Eric Perrot (FRA): The current overall World Cup leader and defending world champion in this event, who also won the most recent individual event by almost a minute, albeit it was the 15km version rather than the 20km version. He might be ever so slightly slower than Giacomel, but he is much more consistent on the range and is the joint favourite with Giacomel to take Gold.
Quentin Fillon-Maillet (FRA): the defending champion in this event, while not quite at his brilliant best this season like he was in Beijing, is still a major threat on his day, and should he hit 19 or 20, he will be in the mix.
Johan Olav Botn (NOR): Botn dominated the early season before falling ill, not finishing below fifth in the first eight individual races this season and winning the most recent 20km. Since he fell ill, he hasn't raced much, so we don't know his true form, and not being picked for the relay might be an indication that he isn't quite at his early-season form.
Sturla Holm Laegreid (NOR): The king of this discipline with six all-time wins in this event, but he has had a weaker season than expected and like Botn has battled illness in the build-up to these games so we dont know his true level at the moment but he has all the experience in the world and will almost certainly hit at least 19 targets to give himself a shot at a medal if his ski form is where it needs to be.
Emilien Jacquelin (FRA): The ultimate Jekyll and Hyde athlete in biathlon, he will either be brilliant and medal or finish outside the top 20 while missing many targets. When he is on form, he is amazing to watch and makes any race he is in better, but he is a much better head-to-head racer with probably the best sprint finish in biathlon, so this race against the clock probably isn't one you'd expect him to medal in.
Sebastian Samuelsson (SWE): Samuelsson had an absolutely terrible outing in the mixed relay to open the olympics but he is currently number three in the world and one of the fastest skiers in the world. If he can control his shooting and hit 18 or 19, he is a threat to the medals.
Johannes Dale Skjevdal (NOR): similar to Jacquelin, you don't really know which Dale-Skjevdal is going to turn up but this season he has been more consistent than ever and despite the odd shoot where he has a complete meltdown and misses at least three out of five, his ski speed is good, and i would expect him to be in the mix.
Others who could contend:
Campbell Wright (USA): the only winter Olympic sport the USA have never medalled in, and Wright is their best chance in at least a decade, with two silver medals in the 2025 world championships. Wright hasn't quite been at that level yet this season, but he is one of the best athletes to watch in the men's field.
Martin Ponsiluoma (SWE): rapid on the tracks, but a really dodgy shot if it all comes together, he could feature.
Simon Eder (AUT): The best and fastest shot on tour will need to hit all 20, and due to him now being 42 is past his best in terms of ski speed will be hoping conditions are difficult so lots of people miss targets.
Phillip Nawrath (GER): The best chance of a medal for the Germans has been getting faster and faster this season, and looks to be hitting form at the crucial point with a brilliant relay leg in the mixed relay, helping the team to bronze.
Whoever is the fourth Norwegian picked for this event out of Christiansen, Uldal and Frey will also be in the mix, given their insane strength in depth on the men's side.
Gold: Perrot
Silver: Giacomel
Bronze: Laegreid
USA Team 2: Jackie Wiles & Paula Moltzan. The American depth is so strong that they could realistically sweep the top spots. Wiles finished 4th in the individual Downhill, and Moltzan has been a consistent podium threat in Slalom all season, making them a formidable backup to their star teammates.
Germany: Kira Weidle-Winkelmann & Emma Aicher.
Italy: Sofia Goggia & Lara Della Mea The home crowd favourites. While Italy has been plagued by injuries, with Marta Bassino out and Federica Brignone still fighting for full fitness, Goggia’s raw speed in the Downhill will need to build a lead for Della Mea, who is a good slalom skier without being elite if they're not top three after the downhill, they won't medal.
Switzerland: Corinne Suter & Camille Rast: The Swiss team is navigating a difficult Games after both Michelle Gisin and Lara Gut-Behrami are injured; they still have four good pairs who could all medal on their day. Suter and Rast are probably their best bet as Rast is the only slalom skier to beat Shiffrin this season.
Prediction:
Gold: USA 1
Silver: Germany
Bronze: USA 2
Gold Medal game: USA vs Sweden: Sweden dominated the top-ranked Great Britain team in their semi-final, beating them 9-3 after a five-score end 6 to take control and see off the Brits. Meanwhile, the USA beat Italy in a very close 9-8 game to reach the final as they held their nerve with the hammer in end eight despite being down one. Sweden has to enter as favourites as they were pretty much perfect yesterday against GB, but do not count out the curling Cory/Korey's who have upset all tournament odds as they were not fancied to make the semi-finals but there they are in the final.
Gold: Sweden
Silver: USA
Bronze medal game: Great Britain vs Italy: Great Britain will be fearing finishing fourth for the second consecutive game, and after their dismantling against Sweden, that looks the most likely, given how Dodds and Mouat capitulated under the Swedish pressure in the sixth end, playing five straight shots terribly, allowing Sweden to score five. Italy lost a very close game to the USA, so they will feel they're the favourites, but never rule out a wounded animal. Dodds and Mouat will be desperate to avoid finishing fourth again, so they will come out firing. This game will be decided early. GB have been great front-runners in this tournament, but have struggled in the two games they've gone down early. If Italy can see off GB in the early ends, the home crowd will likely drag them through.
Bronze: Italy
Fourth: Great Britain
The battle for the gold and silver medals has transformed into an exclusive German duel between the veteran Julia Taubitz and the breakout star Merle Fräbel. Taubitz currently holds a razor-thin lead of just 0.061 seconds, but Fräbel has consistently showcased the fastest start times on the Cortina track during training. However, Taubitz has been there and done that, giving her a slight advantage out of the gate. While Fräbel’s fearless lines have been impressive, Taubitz is the master of the lower sections of track where time is easily lost.
The race for the bronze medal is wide open, with a mere 0.189 seconds separating 3rd place from 8th, meaning a single mistimed exit could completely reshuffle the standings. Currently, Latvia's Elīna Ieva Bota holds the podium spot, but she is being hunted by a pack of elite sliders, including Italy's Verena Hofer (+0.060), Team USA's Ashley Farquharson (+0.113), Italy's Sandra Robatscher (+0.118), Austria's Lisa Schulte (+0.183), and the second American, Emily Fischnaller (+0.189). Because the margin of error is so slim across these six athletes, the bronze is anyone's to take.
Prediction:
Gold: Taubitz
Silver: Fräbel
Bronze: Hofer
Slovenia is the defending gold medalist and the team everyone is chasing. They are led by the Prevc siblings, with Nika Prevcthe current World Cup leaderand her brother Domen Prevc providing a level of sibling synergy never before seen at this level. Along with Timi Zajc, they possess the highest ceiling in terms of raw distance, making them the favourites to repeat as champions.
Austria: The most balanced team in the field with no apparent weak link. Stefan Kraft and Jan Hörl lead the men’s side, while Lisa Eder has emerged as a top-five world talent this season. Their strength lies in their consistency; they rarely have a bad jump, which is crucial in a format where every point from all eight jumps is aggregated.
Norway They're riding high after Anna Odine Strøm claimed individual gold earlier this week. They are paired with Marius Lindvik, who thrives on the technical Predazzo hills. But their second man and woman may be too weak to win gold, but should be enough to be right in the mix for the medals.
Germany: The technical specialists who dominated the 2025 World Championships. Andreas Wellinger and Katharina Schmid bring the most Olympic experience to the tower. Germany focuses on perfect style marks from the judges, which can often compensate for a slightly shorter jump compared to the Slovenians.
Japan: The only non-European team with a realistic shot at the gold. Ryoyu Kobayashi can out-jump anyone in the world on his day, and he is paired with Nozomi Maruyama, who has been the breakout star of the 2025/26 season. If their second man, Ren Nikaido, can hold his nerve, Japan has the firepower to sweep past the Europeans.
Others Who Could Contend:
Italy:
The host nation relies on Lara Malsiner and Annika Sieff, who have spent years training on these specific hills, and with the home crowd behind them, they are the top choice for a spoiler medal if one of the big five falters.
Canada:
The surprise bronze medalists from the last Olympics. While they are missing the injured Alexandria Loutitt, Abigail Strate, and veteran Mackenzie Boyd-Clowes have proven they can handle the pressure of the mixed format. They will be hoping for difficult wind conditions that favour experienced technical jumpers over raw power.
Poland:
A veteran squad led by the legendary Kamil Stoch in his final Olympics. While their women’s program is still developing, the sheer point-scoring ability of Stoch and Dawid Kubacki keeps them within striking distance of a top-five finish.
Prediction:
Gold: Slovenia
Silver: Norway
Bronze: Austria
Daniel Mott
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